Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Richard Koch and Harry Potter and the

and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

She has far too much to live for

Casting a wide net through history and culture

At 60 beats per minute

The Bus Driver Who Wanted to Be God gathers his daring and provocative short stories for the first time in English

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Richard Koch and Harry Potter and theThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an